Usually, I'll leave the X's and O's talk to sites like Field Gulls and Hawkblogger, who are both better at the high-end football strategy and statistical stuff. But I'm looking around, and I'm not seeing much in terms of hope for a victory this Sunday. The mighty Giants are rolling into Qwest, and the Seahawks are beat-up, far from full-strength, and coming off an embarrassing blowout road loss.
Sounds like the situation after week 2, doesn't it? Weren't the talented Chargers supposed to truck us? I'm here to tell you the Seahawks will win Sunday, and they will do it much the same way they took down San Diego a few weeks ago. Let's look at some numbers that break in Seattle's FAVOR (feel free to use all this as ammo against the haters this week)
-According to Football Outsider's DVOA rankings, the Seahawks have the best Special Teams unit in the NFL, while New York's is next-to-last. Seattle's win on Sunday will include Jon Ryan pinning the Giants deep, and Leon Washington setting up a short field for Hasselbeck and the offense. It will probably also include multiple long FGs from Mare, and a bushel of touchbacks. A special teams takeaway or touchdown? That could be the clincher for Seattle.
-Speaking of "ball security," only the Panthers and Cardinals have barfed up more turnovers than the 21 the Giants have surrendered. A Seattle win is going to include winning the turnover battle, probably by a +2 or greater margin.
-Under Coughlin, the Giants are 3-3 coming off bye weeks. They are also only 3-4 on the road in the Pacific Time Zone during the Coughlin era. Not exactly fearsome history, huh?
-The biggest thing? Qwest Field. Playing in front of the Twelve Army just makes the Seahawks a smidgen faster, stronger, and BETTER... While making the opposition a bit slower, weaker, and WORSE. The Giants know this well, but I doubt they are going to show up with a solution to the problem this Sunday. A raucous, NFC-Championship type atmosphere will help lead the Seahawks to an upset win.
-Plus, it's a 50/50 proposition that it'll rain... I can't see rain as anything but another advantage for Seattle.
The formula that beat the Chargers can and WILL work to beat the Giants. Go forth and spread the word, minions!