November 23, 2011
"If You Think This is Over, Then You're Wrong"
Later today I will get on a plane and fly west to see my family in the Tri-Cities and hopefully see my brother James and the Kamiakin Braves upset Bellevue in the Washington 3A State Semi-Finals Saturday... but I'm also going to the Seahawks game Sunday, which is suddenly way more than a battle between two losing teams going nowhere (at least to me).
I spent a lot of time growing up trying to figure out how middling Seahawks teams might be able to make the playoffs. What are the relevant tie-breakers? Who should we be rooting for? Rooting against? I remember doing a lot of that crap with pen and paper back in the dark ages of the 80s and 90s- Thankfully now we have the ESPN NFL Playoff Machine to fuel the insanity of pasty dorks like myself.
Long story short? The Seahawks have a very solid shot at the postseason IF they win the rest of their games and finish 10-6. Seattle CAN get in at 9-7, but would then need a lot more outside help- You should root for Dallas to win the NFC East because we lose the head-to-head tiebreaker with them but win that same tiebreaker with the New York Giants. You should also root for losses by Atlanta, Chicago, and Detroit. Because three of Seattle's losses were to AFC teams, the Seahawks would win most multiple-team tiebreakers based on conference record.
Even shorter version: If the Seahawks keep winning, their chance of making the playoffs will keep climbing up, up, up.
If you go to Cool Standings right now, it will tell you that the Seahawks have a 1.2% chance of making the playoffs. This is where most folks would insert their Dumb and Dumber "So you're saying there's a chance" jokes- Not me. I hate bringing this up as a Red Sox fan, but it's worth pointing out that the Tampa Bay Rays had a 1.3% chance of making the playoffs on September 7, 2011.
It's NOT hopeless- We still have a chance at this, particularly with our relatively soft upcoming schedule. The Seahawks have a meaningful game to play on Sunday, and I intend to scream myself voiceless trying to will us to victory over DC... For now, that's good enough for me.
What do you think, sirs?