More Ramblings from Captain Insano...

A very common cognitive bias is to overvalue recent events. Recently, the Seahawks have been playing terrible football, and this has led to near unanimity in this sentiment: The Seahawks gargle monkey nuts.

But wait! This team HAS posted two shutouts. They DID outplay Arizona for much of the game a couple of weeks ago. Seattle football isn't just a boundless ocean of fucktardery and suckitude... We've seen flashes of competence, even moments of dominance. Is it possible that part of the problem is that we've played a bunch of very good teams?

If you look at the current records of Seahawk opponents, Seattle has played two 9-1 teams, A 7-3 team three times, a 6-4 team, two 4-6 teams, and two 1-9 teams. The remaining sked? Two 1-9 teams, two 4-6 teams, a 5-5 team and a 6-4 team. If the Seahawks rally against weaker opponents, will that performance be exalted? Dismissed?

If you look at the records of teams on the day that they faced the Seahawks, Seattle has gone 0-5 against teams with winning records, 2-2 against teams that were .500, and 1-0 against teams with losing records. It's HIGHLY likely that five of Seattle's last six opponents will sport losing records when they face the Seahawks on the gridiron. As Disco Stu might say, "if these trends continue? Ayyyyyyyyyy."

Are the Seahawks going to win their last 6 games? Probably not... But it's more possible than anyone out there wants to admit. Four or even five wins? Completely plausible. The "lose out to get a high draft pick" crowd might not like to hear this, but these Seahawks are going to win some games over the final stretch of this season.

So many people out there are absolutely convinced that Seahawks are the suckiest bunch of sucks who ever sucked. What if they claw back to the 7-9 to 9-7 range? Idiots will still say "Seachickens suck!" But reality, as usual, is far more complex.

Don't give up on your team just yet, Soldiers of Twelve.

Use Your Delusions

I've spent most of the last 24 hours in a haze of anger and depression, thinking about the draft, thinking about the idea of The Big Show returning, etc. You know what I've decided? I'm not ready to face stupid reality quite yet. For at least one more week, I'm more than willing to fool myself that there is something left to fight for this season. If you want to join me in the padded room, here's some ammo for you...

The Seahawks looked atrocious yesterday, but they were also playing a very formidable Super Bowl contender. This week? It's the 1-9 Rams, who haven't beat our guys since the 2004 NFC Wild Card game. A lot of you are so disgusted right now, that you think we won't even beat STL... Thankfully, you're wrong. Pfft, right? Who gives a shit? 4-7.

Ahh yes, but a week later, we come home to face the 49ers. After what happened back in week two, the Hawks BETTER be geeked for this one. Yes, Seattle is 2-4 over the last 6 games. The Niners? They're 1-5. As rough as things have looked this season, the Hawks have only served one outright crapburger at Qwest (the big loss to AZ). SF is a team we can and SHOULD beat at home. Ho hum. 5-7. Meh.

December 13 at the Texans, for our first trip to Houston since 1994. After two straight wins, the Seahawks have built up a bit of confidence... They catch the inconsistent Texans wallowing in complacency, and pull off an upset win. 6-7, and things are getting interesting.

The Hawks come home to play the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay stupidly fails to wear the creamsicle throwbacks, and the suddenly hot Seahawks (resplendent in the lime green alts) lay a beating on them. 7-7.

Then, it's at Lambeau on December 27th. The graveyard of Seattle playoff hopes many times before... Green Bay comes in 8-6 and fighting for their postseason lives, but Al Harris isn't around to pick off Hasselbeck, and the Hawks pull off another stunning upset. 8-7, and very much alive.

The regular season finale against Tennessee is a win-and-in scenario for Seattle. Qwest is rocking like it's 2005, and even the Vince Young-led, revitalized Titans don't stand a chance against the onslaught of the Hawks D and the twelve army. 9-7! The Seahawks squeeze into the 5th spot in the NFC playoffs, earning a Wild Card trip to.... Glendale, AZ to play the Cardinals.

Yes, it probably won't happen. But for at least one more week, it's theoretically possible, and I'm clinging to that like it's the last stimutax on Sealab.

If Chuck Knox was were dead, he'd be spinning in his grave.

We all were pretty sure Seattle was going to lose today, but the manner in which they lost was shameful. It was a comprehensive, team-wide fail of epic proportions; one so embarrassing and incompetent that it puts the jobs of all but a handful of personnel at risk.

Yes, the Vikings are an excellent team, but there's no reason Seattle couldn't have made a more competitive showing (particularly when the lowly Chiefs defeated the World Champions just minutes after our game ended). There's no reason ANY NFL team should be held to 4 yards rushing, no matter how stout the opposing defense is. There's no reason our defense should allow an opposing QB to go 22 for 25, even if it's Brett Favre playing at an All-Pro level. There's no reason that we should be so absolutely maladroit in these 10 am road games when other teams find ways to prevail in the same situations.

This is an organizational failure, and regardless of the results over the final 6 games (which may be respectable), big changes need to be made to avoid tumbling into an early-90s-ish abyss. I'm going to officially come out in support of hiring Mike Holmgren as the new Master and Commander of All Things Seahawks. Let him hire a GM and Head Coach who will carry out his organizational vision, and we'll see if Seattle's greatest coach can create a new era of Seahawks glory.

Some other observations from today, shamelessly cut and pasted from my twitter feed:

-Since that 41-0 blowout at Qwest, Seahawks are 1-4. Jaguars? 4-1.

-Anyone who claims to be a Seahawks fan and wants us to LOSE at STL next week is a moron and a traitor. Just saying. The Seahawks still have four very winnable games on the schedule, and yes, I want them to win all of them.

-In their last two games wearing the white jerseys and blue pants, both in Minnesota, 6 years apart, the Seahawks were outscored 69-16.

-Saddest thing you'll read today, from Yahoo! Sports... SEA Top Performer: J. Forsett, 8 carries, 9 yards, 1 TD.

-Anyone else think Minnesota is going to XLIV? I've got them losing to Indianapolis in Miami at this point.

-Will the Seahawks be a legit contender by the time the Steelers come to Qwest in 2011 for the biggest regular season game EVAR? Discuss!

UPDATE: Thanks to loyal reader Toftie for correcting by awful grammar in the title. She writes...

Because I love you and because I think you're brilliant, I have to correct a
grammar error so no one thinks you are just a douchebag fan (instead of the
god that you are). You DKSB entry about Chuck Knox. It's "If Chuck Knox
WERE dead...." not "was dead." At least in everything I've been taught.

That was free. No charge for that. :)

Here's a bonus pic of Toftie and I kicking it at Qwest at the Rams game in September. She = awesome.

No Revenge for us Nerds

I used to dread getting up and going to high school back in the day. This is what every day held for me back then: Boring classes, social isolation, terrible food, having to hang out with friends I didn't really like (but whose company was better than being completely alone), pining for girls I had absolutely no chance to ever date, and the very real possibility of getting dumped face first into a garbage can by the popular jocks. I would meet every school day with a weary, exhausted sigh.

That's what the lead-up to Sunday's game feels like for me. Another shitty day at high school.

I'd love to be the optimist here, but unless Brett Favre suddenly and completely reverts to "golly gee shucks, I'm gonna just chuck it into a clump of 4 DBs" mode, we are FUCKED. The talent gap between these two teams is massive, and it's a 10 am pacific road game against a team with a winning record.

On top of that, we've got the Hutch thing to deal with this week, which while totally played out, is still a reminder of Seattle's biggest organizational fuck-up of this decade.

It's very sad that things have gotten to this point, but I just want the Seahawks to go out and play with emotion and intensity. Just don't get embarrassed, guys.

And as this season threatens to start circling the drain, it's getting harder than usual to deal with our franchise's clear status as 2nd-class citizens in the NFL. Do you really think that Darnell Dockett would even be playing this weekend if he had jammed his elbow onto Brady, Manning, or Brees' larynx? Hell no. But we're the Seahawks, so who gives a fuck, right? Just imagine if Brandon Mebane did that to Favre on Sunday. You'd see a shower of yellow flags, an ejection, a suspension and a giant-ass fine.

So just like I did damn near 20 years ago, I'll get up, go through the motions, and just try to survive the day on Sunday. At least I won't have to go to gym class this time around... or eat cafeteria food.

Unfounded, Uninformed, Wild Speculation

Today we get the sad reports that Paul Allen has been diagnosed with Non-Hodgkins Lymphoma. Obviously, we all wish the Seahawks' owner a speedy and full recovery, but I have to wonder if this might have an effect on the decisions Allen must make about the future of the team.

Mike Holmgren is transparently angling for a Parcells-like "football czar" position with the Seahawks, and my initial read is that Allen's condition makes this more likely to happen in the off-season. Allen and The Big Show have always had a great relationship, and it makes sense that the owner would want a trusted, proven commodity (who just happens to be one of the most important figures in franchise history) running the team.

A seriously ill owner is a terrible source of uncertainty for a team to deal with. Holmgren's steady, skilled hand would lessen this institutional anxiety considerably. Barring a spectacular turnaround from the 2009 Hawks in the next seven games, I think the momentum is cleary building for Mike Holmgren's return next year.

What do you think, sirs?