November 24, 2009

More Ramblings from Captain Insano...

A very common cognitive bias is to overvalue recent events. Recently, the Seahawks have been playing terrible football, and this has led to near unanimity in this sentiment: The Seahawks gargle monkey nuts.

But wait! This team HAS posted two shutouts. They DID outplay Arizona for much of the game a couple of weeks ago. Seattle football isn't just a boundless ocean of fucktardery and suckitude... We've seen flashes of competence, even moments of dominance. Is it possible that part of the problem is that we've played a bunch of very good teams?

If you look at the current records of Seahawk opponents, Seattle has played two 9-1 teams, A 7-3 team three times, a 6-4 team, two 4-6 teams, and two 1-9 teams. The remaining sked? Two 1-9 teams, two 4-6 teams, a 5-5 team and a 6-4 team. If the Seahawks rally against weaker opponents, will that performance be exalted? Dismissed?

If you look at the records of teams on the day that they faced the Seahawks, Seattle has gone 0-5 against teams with winning records, 2-2 against teams that were .500, and 1-0 against teams with losing records. It's HIGHLY likely that five of Seattle's last six opponents will sport losing records when they face the Seahawks on the gridiron. As Disco Stu might say, "if these trends continue? Ayyyyyyyyyy."

Are the Seahawks going to win their last 6 games? Probably not... But it's more possible than anyone out there wants to admit. Four or even five wins? Completely plausible. The "lose out to get a high draft pick" crowd might not like to hear this, but these Seahawks are going to win some games over the final stretch of this season.

So many people out there are absolutely convinced that Seahawks are the suckiest bunch of sucks who ever sucked. What if they claw back to the 7-9 to 9-7 range? Idiots will still say "Seachickens suck!" But reality, as usual, is far more complex.

Don't give up on your team just yet, Soldiers of Twelve.


christopher said...

Save me a seat on the dare to dream express!!

MikeT said...

I'll take as many wins as this group can give us. I live for victory on Sundays, not draft pick positioning. Rock out with your Hawk out, 12TH MAN!!!

bleedshawkblue said...