May 1, 2008

Statistical Nerdage: Comparing the Divisions Since Realignment

Instead of grading, I spent a good part of this morning crunching numbers from Pro Football Reference regarding the strength of the 8 NFL divisions since realignment in 2002. And yes, the NFC West is the worst division in football since realignment.

Divisional Regular Season Winning Percentage Since 2002
1. AFC South .536
2. NFC East .531
3. AFC East .518
4. AFC West .516
5. AFC North .500
6. NFC South .490
7. NFC North .466
8. NFC West .443

Yeah, our division sucks, and it isn't really even close. However, Which teams have been the "most dominant" in their given divisions since 2002? Here, I took the difference between the winning % of each division's top team (2002-2007) and the winning % of the other three teams combined:

"Most Dominant" teams in relation to division foes (2002-2007)

1. Patriots .351
2. Colts .299
3. Seahawks .216
4. Packers .171
5. Steelers .167
6. Eagles .138
7. SD/Den .118
8. Panthers .055

So who is the most impressive here? Probably the Colts, who have dominated a division with two other teams over .500 from 02-07 (Jaguars and Titans). Some other interesting nuggets:

Top 10 teams (2002-2007)

1. Patriots 75-21
2. Colts 73-23
3. Eagles 61-35
4. Steelers 60-36
5. Seahawks 58-38
5. Chargers 58-38
5. Broncos 58-38
8. Packers 57-39
9. Cowboys 52-44
9. Chiefs 52-44

Worst 5 teams

32. Lions 29-67
31. Raiders 30-66
30. Texans 32-64
29. Cardinals 33-63
28. 49ers 35-61

Wow. 2 of the 5 worst teams in our division... That move from the AFC looks pretty good now, huh? :-]

1 comment:

Michael Steffes said...

Despite the ineptitude of our division, we have proven our selves by winning a playoff game every year. 2005 was the only year we had the bye and we were arguably the best team in football. Would playing in a tougher division have changed that? I believe that will a 16 game schedule and three rounds of playoffs it is pretty hard to sneak into the 2nd round of the playoffs, despite what the media pundits would have you think out the Hawks success. Fuck em!